December
2005
Reynolds & Sullivan likely to avoid primaries
It’s not just tea leaves — neither State Senator Tom Reynolds, nor his Democratic challenger, Wauwatosa Alderman Jim Sullivan are likely to face any substantive primary challenge for the election next November.
At first it looked like State Assembly Representative Leah Vukmir would challenge Senator Reynolds but her divorce, compounded with the fact that the religious right base of the GOP isn’t exactly tolerant of a woman who has gone through a breakup, complicated her interest in running for the seat.
Then businessman Brian Fraley was said to be interested in running but Fraley came out publicly stating he was not going to run and that his differences with Reynolds are more personal than political.
Republican blogger and publisher of Wisconsin Conservative Digest, Bob Dohnal, a Reynolds campaign donor and personal beneficiary of a piece of Reynolds authored legislation, has been showering the Senator with praises and singing his name from the rooftops. In Dohnal’s own unique way he has expressed how those that aren’t fond of Reynolds are part of a larger liberal conspiracy and they should all just burn in hell.
Conservative Republican newspaper publisher and columnist JJ Blonien weighed in with a column calling Reynolds “bulletproof“.
With the Vukmir endorsement solidified and the conservative base firmly behind Reynolds, that leaves only the question of who will challenge Reynolds in the November general election.
That leaves Wauwatosa Alderman Jim Sullivan.
Early on, Assembly Rep Dave Cullen (D-Milwaukee) expressed some interest but fairly quickly backed away. Then Rep Tony Staskunas (D-West Allis), tossed some feelers out but he left the door open until June he said. June came and went, then it was September which also passed. Then an anonymous phone poll went through parts of the district asking about a pro-life democrat and if Staskunas were to run, what would be his chances. But it doesn’t take a political scientist to tell that pro-life voters will already be voting for the evangelical Reynolds so if Staskunas were to jump into a primary against the already announced Sullivan, Staskunas’ pro-life base would already be voting for the Republican. Besides, GOP voters in the metro Milwaukee media market will want to weigh in on the Governors race in support of their golden boy, Scott Walker, so there won’t be a lot of crossover voting in this election.
Fast forward to present day and traditional democratic groups are already lining up behind Sullivan. As the only candidate who has filed for the democratic nomination (Sullivan filed early last summer), Sullivan has taken an early lead in fundraising and endorsements.
Sullivan is securing support from traditional democratic groups and moderate Republicans who are disenfranchised by Reynold extremism. This week Sullivan announced key law enforcement endorsements from the West Allis Police Association, Wauwatosa Peace Officers Association and Wauwatosa firefighters in addition to the endorsement of 3 Wauwatosa Mayors including current mayor Teri Estness and past Mayors Maricolete Walsh and Jim Benz.
The district is divided by three Assembly districts. Staskunas’ district includes West Allis which has a miserable voter turnout. Vukmir’s district includes the voter turnout powerhouse, Wauwatosa (also home to Jim Sullivan) but also includes part of Brookfield and Elm Grove. Cullen’s district is primarily Milwaukee but includes a bit of Wauwatosa.
To complicate matters, West Allis was at one time a Democratic stronghold but has voted for the Republican in the past several presidential elections. Tosa is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold but Senators Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl have both done well there. John Kerry actually carried seven Tosa wards in this past election so Tosa is changing but whether it is changing fast enough may be one of Sullivan’s biggest challenges. Elm Grove and Brookfield are clearly Republican strongholds. Cullen’s Milwaukee district is clearly a Democratic stronghold.
So the question for Sullivan is, can he bring West Allis back to their traditional democratic roots? Can he win strong enough in Milwaukee and Tosa to offset a certain loss in Elm Grove and Brookfield?
Conversely, Reynolds has to be wondering whether moderate voters will be interested in voting for his Stalinistic approach to twisted evangelical values (including doing printing work for his pal Ralph Ovadahl who called Pope John Paul a “Minister of Satan“) and whether his past quirkiness and outlandish public quotes will be overlooked or seen as actions unbefitting a Senator.
Whatever the case, this is shaping up to be THE HOTTEST RACE in or around Milwaukee County next fall.
Jim McGuigan
Jim McGuigan, Reynolds Watch, Watchdogging Wisconsin
RSS feed
Link
What a misguided read on this race. Putting your hopes on Stallis???
Stallis is booming with professionals/young families who probably grew up Republican in the southwest Milwaukee County/eastern Waukesha County suburbs and are in Stallis for only as long as it takes to be able to afford to move back to their roots. That is and will continue to be the trend Stallis/West Milwaukee/eastern Tosa.
Those families are more than likely pro-life (at least there are more pro-lifers in the district than pro-choice), they are increasingly white collar and union influence rings hollow in their neighborhoods, and they’ve all benefitted from Bush tax cuts. The make-up of the district is largely upper-middle class (remember, upper-middle class is not that high of an income: two people bringing in 60-70k a year are considered upper-middle class by the IRS. They pay high property taxes, they’re paying off student loans, and between Fisher-Price toys and the cost of batteries for those toys, there isn’t much left). Their concern is not the parks in the communities, but the schools. Except for Tosa, parents there want private schools and don’t want to subsidize MPS or mass transit.
In this day and age, they are concerned with neighborhood safety and not union safety. Remember, the people who are the future of Stallis probably never even had parents who were in a union. Face it, union endorsements amount to nill in a general election, except for the manpower it provides; the majority of voters don’t care about your pro-union ideas.
They are going to vote for Reynolds because he is Republican, not because of who he is. This race isn’t close.
You’re assuming that West Allis is a one issue town. I think you’re not giving West Allis enough credit here. Besides, all of West Allis isn’t opposed to womens healthcare.
Many people move to West Allis because they like the community, affordable homes and good schools, not because they see it as a quick stopping ground along the road to home ownership.
Your analysis of the district as being self-absorbed, non-community oriented nimby’s doesn’t give the people who live there very much credit.
These same people are also people who are scared by the religious conservatism of Reynolds. If it was any other Republican then the race would be a blow out, but Reynolds scares the beezebus out of people are that makes this race a toss up.
And he should scare the hell out of catholics. He doesn’t like us. He’s doing the print work for a guy who called my Pope a “Minister of Satan”.
If Reynolds wanted to tweak us Catholics, he succeeded. Clearly he doesn’t think he needs any of our votes.
There’s no reason to believe that voters in West Allis or ‘Tosa are single issue abortion voters, as Sue suggests. She’s right about ‘Tosa voters caring about their schools (Tosa East is one of the top public high schools in Southeastern Wisconsin) — and that favors Sullivan in this race. If Reynolds and the GOP had their way in the last budget, schools throughout the district would have been underfunded.
I was chatting with Wayne Youngquist (longtime TV news political analyst) last night and he pointed out that Catholics will be key swing votes in this race.
Youngquist also pointed out that there is only one reason Tom Reynolds is in office: Tom Barrett. The Reynolds-Peggy Rosenzweig primary was held when Barrett was going against Gov. Doyle and Kathleen Falk in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Barrett, a Democrat highly regarded in Tosa who used to carpool to the state Capitol with Rosenzweig when they were in the Legislature, drew votes from moderates throughout the district, both Democrat and Republican. About 2,000 voters made the mistake of voting for Barrett and Rosenzweig and had their ballots thrown out (cross-party voting on the same ballot is not allowed in a primary).
That was the difference in the race, and Rosenzweig, a popular moderate Republican who reflected the overall values of the district, lost.
Jim Sullivan is a Democrat, and he’s just like voters throughout the senate district: He’s got a lot more in common with Barrett and Rosenzweig than Reynolds does. At present, the 5th Senate District is a district without a Senator.
Please stop referring to Tom Reynolds as “(R-West Allis)”. He was also elected by brain dead citizens from West Milwaukee, Elm Grove, Milwaukee, Wauwatosa and Brookfield. It’s bad enough he lives in our fine community but to give the impression that this disaster actually reflects the views of our city is a smear.
Legislators are commonly referred to with their party affiliation and the town they claim to call home. His party affiliation (R) isn’t in question and to the best of our knowledge he’s bunking in West Allis.
You’ll notice that I said “You’re assuming that West Allis is a one issue town. I think you’re not giving West Allis enough credit here” in response to one reader. So no, we’re not suggesting that Reynolds reflects the views of West Allis but we are pleased to hear a West Allis resident speak up.
I live in Brookfield and feel disenfranchised since the election of Tom Reynolds. He does not represent the views of anyone I know here. We are not gun toting, Bible beating idiots out here. One can only hope people are a little wiser in the next election (he did not get our votes last time either.)What an embarrassment to this area!