It's six weeks away from the election and the Wisconsin GOP is in panic mode over the likely loss of the seat currently held by State Senator Tom Reynolds — so much so that they're using distortions even among their own donors to try to pump up the self-wounding Reynolds.

They're claiming that Reynolds holds a 5 point lead over Wauwatosa Alderman Jim Sullivan — but their data is old.  Two weeks ago, Sullivan started to mail his first pieces to the constituents he hopes to represent.  This is a time when candidates develop their name recognition.  Reynolds already has name recognition but for all the wrong reasons. The GOP polling data predates Sullivan's mailer. 

He's used his printing presses to do work for a friend of his who called Pope John Paul II a "minister of Satan".  He's asked potential hires during job interviews things like "are you a virgin" and "have you accepted Jesus Christ into your heart"?  He's authored a bill custom made for his pharmacist friend and political kindred spirit Bob Dohnal which would make Dohnal exempt from any requirement to fill a prescription he didn't want to — putting the pharmacist beliefs above the patient needs.  Reynolds has even ducked two debates and has turned his back on both Catholics (his anti-catholic bias was already obvious on his printing press) as well as Unitarians who offered Reynolds the opportunities to debate Sullivan.

Sullivan started with extremely low name recognition, and over the next 6 weeks he will continue to build it.  He's built an impressive campaign machine and has nearly 150 volunteers who showed up recently for a massive canvassing effort.   He's raised more money than any other Democratic State Senate candidate in the first six months of this year while Reynolds (the incumbent) raised only about one-third what Sullivan raised.

The GOP knows Reynolds is in trouble so they're trotting out poll numbers from prior to when Sullivan mailed his first campaign lit piece and prior to the massive canvassing push Team Sullivan launched two weekends ago.

The reality is that they're asking donors to pony up to throw good money after bad.  Even if donors do pay up in a futile effort to save Reynolds, there is no promise that he would even spend it effectively.  He's used his campaign funds to pay his own heating bills as well as paying himself a printers salary from the campaign account.  Apparently, according to Reynolds own actions, his State Senator salary isn't enough yet his proponents are silent about why Reynolds is justified in skimming from a political account he's asked other GOP donor to fill.

All this adds up to one clear conclusion — Reynolds is in trouble. 

UPDATE: Gretchen over at Milwaukee Rising has a story about how Reynolds is using his campaign to pay himself nearly double the salary a printer in our area would make according to an analysis of printer salaries on salary.com.

UPDATE 2: Any GOP poll that could have been done was done prior to a debate with Reynolds and Sullivan since Reynolds ducked the last two debates.  Apparently he plans on showing up for an upcoming one at his own church. 

UPDATE 3: Dave from The Diamond Mind has a good column on why Reynolds is going to lose.  Dave alludes to how State paid staffer JJ Blonien who was Reynolds campaign manager (Reynolds says consultant) is sucking off the government teet while doing campaign work.