October
2006
Gerrymandering + Hot 2002 Democratic Governor’s Primary = Senator Tom Reynolds
A reader, commenting on our coverage of last week's 5th state Senate District debate, raised the question on the minds of many voters as they consider the strong challenge 'Tosa alderman Jim Sullivan is giving quacky Republican Senator Tom Reynolds: "How did Reynolds get elected to begin with?"
A look at the 2002 election that sent Reynolds to the Legislature reveals that residents of Milwaukee County cannot be held responsible. Reynolds lost the Milwaukee County portions of the district to economic development specialist George Christenson (25,462 to 25,428).
But thanks to some clever gerrymandering by the Legislature's controlling Republicans, the 5th Senate District included for the first time in 2002 wards outside of Milwaukee County. After the 2000 Census, 16 wards of Brookfield and Elm Grove were added to SD 5's northwest Milwaukee/West Allis/Wauwatosa base. No matter how far out Reynolds' takes on important issues are, he crushed Christenson in Brookfield and Elm Grove, where he took home 71% of the vote and collected his margin of victory. The final tally: Reynolds 53% to Chrisenson's 47%.
How much did SD 5 change? Before redistricting, SD 5 contained thirty Milwaukee wards. Now there are 21. The 18 wards on the north side of SD 5, including two 'Tosa wards, were lopped off and the district pushed west into Waukesha County and south to include all of West Allis and West Milwaukee. Had Reynolds and Christenson run against each other in the old 5th District, Christenson wins.
The overt gerrymandering strategy of state Republicans has been to carve away at Democrats' Milwaukee stronghold while maintaining safe seats in the area. The notion in SD 5 was to make life difficult for Democrat David Cullen, whose Assembly District 13 was for a decade comprised entirely of SD 5's thirty Milwaukee wards. The gerrymandering gave Cullen the eastern half of 'Tosa (where County Executive Scott Walker lives) and five West Milwaukee wards to go along with 19 Milwaukee wards — but he kept winning.
The GOP did create a safe Assembly seat out of the west subdivisions in 'Stallis and 'Tosa and the Brookfield-Elm Grove 'burbs. But in giving away 13 of 'Tosa's 24 wards — 11 to Cullen and the two north wards to the 4th Senate District (Lena Taylor) and the 12th Assembly District (Fred Kessler) — Republicans gave the Dems a firm foothold in the birthplace of the John Birch Society.
Along the way, 'Tosa lost its popular, moderate state Senator, Republican Peggy Rosenzweig, now a regent on the UW System Board.
Prior to running against Rosenzweig in the 2002 GOP primary Reynolds' previous claims to fame were printing radical religious materials and twice losing big to Congressman Jerry Kleczka. Rosenzweig had bucked the party on the takeover of MPS, cosponsored bipartisan health care initiatives, voted pro-choice and even cosponsored bipartisan campaign finance reform legislation. In 2002, the hardliners in her party backed Reynolds and went after her in the primary.
Still, Rosenzweig might have survived were it not for Tom Barrett. In 2002, the likeable west sider was making his bid for governor; and on Milwaukee's west side and in east 'Tosa, many of Barrett's moderate voters were also Rosenzweig voters. Then-GOP Senate leader Mary Panzer, in an interview with Wispolitics.com after the 2002 election, estimated that Rosenzweig lost 2,000 voters to the Democratic Primary and Barrett.
"People wanted to vote for both, but they couldn't," Panzer said, noting that Barrett and Rosenzweig carpooled to Madison together in the 1980's when both served in the Assembly. (Ironically, Panzer would meet a fate similar to Rosenzweig's two years later as the GOP continued to sweep the moderates from its house).
Rosenzweig lost to Reynolds by 971 votes, 53.7% to 46.3%, despite beating Reynolds in Brookfield and Elm Grove. The total number of votes cast in the Republican primary was relatively low for the high turnout 5th — only 10,555 compared to 16,036 cast for unopposed Christenson. This lends some credibility to Panzer's theory.
For Wauwatosa, Tuesday Nov. 7 is a chance to elect one of their own, Jim Sullivan, and reclaim the political power lost when the city was carved up after the 2000 Census. The 'Tosa alderman can expect to win the Milwaukee County vote by a larger margin than Christenson did, but to come out on top, he has to win the trust of voters in the western subdivisions of 'Tosa and 'Stallis and in Brookfield and Elm Grove.
If Sullivan does this, Nov. 7 becomes a referendum on whether the hardliners controlling the state Republican Party — by squeezing an out-to-lunch, bible belting home-schooler through the 2002 primary back door — have proven themselves out of touch with the suburban voters they claim to champion.
John-david Morgan
John-David Morgan, Reynolds Watch, Watchdogging Campaigns
Note to village idiot. The courts drew the lines.
Bob…
You’re absolutely correct, your houseboy Reynolds is the Village Idiot.
Seems that when I ran into him at the State Street Sentrya month or so ago he couldn’t tell me if I was, or was not living in the 5th District. He had no clue as to where the boundries were.
What a clueless moron. It’s gotta be tough work getting through life when you have shit for brains.
Dohnal…
You hit the nail on the head. Your houseboy Reynolds is indeed the Village Idiot.
Earlier this year I ran into him at Metcalf\’s Sentry (in the village of Tosa).
He could not tell me if I lived within the boundaries of the 5th District (I do). This guy is pathetic and has a larger shoe size than IQ.
Must be tough trying to get through life with shit for brains, eh?
Reynolds is lucky he has you to tell him what to think.
Lovely tone Dohnal.
Note to alltime idiot: The legislature played a role.
Peggy was a great legislator, when we had a good legislature. Tosa\’s loss was the UW\’s gain, so we are glad that she still is in public service at all.
But we never will forgive the neocons of the party for the redistricting that cost her the election. It was not the Dem ticket with Barrett — it was the same neocons who went after all the moderates in their own party.
Well Bob …
The Legislature gets the redistricting job after the Census. What actually happens is that the controlling party (in this case it was the Assembly Republicans) sets up a redistricting committee, hires consultant lawyers, the lawyers draw the lines, the committee rubber stamps the gerrymandered plan and the two parties fight it out. Of course, the Dems did all they could to minimize the damage and after all that the courts are brought in to approve the new map. The courts do not have the resources to bring in new consultants (and few judges would view that as the judicial role in the process), and there are motions and suits being brought throughout, so the final map is very similar to the map that was approved by …
The Republican-controlled Assembly redistricting committee.
The 5th District lost a great senator in 2002. Much of the bipartisanship in the senate left with her.
JD,
You’re wrong when you said the dems did all they could. There were a few dems that were offered safe seats (packed with more dems) in exchange for their votes. The Republicans bought them off. Fortunately, several of them are gone now.
Jim,
Yes, I recall that now. It was the subject of one your columns in ThePress, I think? Are we naming names?
Chuck Chvala comes to mind … And Shirly Krug got a nice deal on the northwest side. In fact, nine of the north end wards lopped out of the 5th Senate District (13th Assembly District - David Cullen), including the two Tosa wards, went into the 12th Assembly District of Shirley Krug. Three more north end wards in SD 5 went into the 11th Assembly District (Johnnie-Morris Tatum); three more, including a new ward went east into 6th Senate District.
Motive? Krug, then the Democratic minority leader in the Assembly, did not want her district to become a majority-minority district … so the Assembly reapportionment committee swung her district south into the 5th Senate District.
Defending their seat in the 5th Senate District by taking the district west to Elm Grove and Brookfield — clearly the doing of the Assembly redistricting committee, controlled by Republicans and chaired by Bonnie Ladwig (R-Racine).
Trivia time for the Watchdog faithful:
Can you name the two legislators named above not charged with crimes?
And the only legislator named above still on the job?
Here’s a thought. I think some Democrats may have believed that Christenson was going to beat Reynolds, and were quite happy that Rosenzweig - who was unbeatable in a general election - lost in the primary.
But looking at the wards, you get to 85th street in ‘Tosa and begin walking west toward Brookfield and Democrat voters become few and far between. The Brookfield-Elm Grove vote bears that out, as Christenson made few inroads there. Sullivan, we hope, is faring better.
There was a poll I heard of a couple of weeks back that showed it was a 40-40 tie. That meant that less than a month out from the election there was still a 20% undecided.
One of the normal guests on the Sykes Sunday show, Deb Jordahl (republican blogger) was saying that undecideds break 2 to 1 for the challenger. If Jordahl is right, that means that Sullivan would get about 53.3% of the vote.
Then again, Jordahl is the type of partisan who says that the fiscal mess in the state is Doyle’s fault (Doyle is finishing his first 4 year term) but that the mess in Milwaukee County is not the fault of Scott Walker (Walker is in his 4th year as County Executive.
So I don’t know if we can believe anything she says.
That was a push poll by the state Senate Dem Caucus. The undecideds are not necessarily regular voters, so they sometimes fall into “indifferent voter” strategies. If this were a national race, anybody on the fence is probably going to vote anti-Bush. Or they may just forget to vote.
But in this Governor’s race … Milwaukee area’s tough on Doyle … and I don’t think the R is that much of a stigma in these state races.
Elm Grove tally in the 2002 general: McCallum 2,385 to Doyle’s 763 (Ed Thompson got 89). That’s 74% for Scott McCallum in Elm Grove … 23.5% for Jim Doyle.
One more note on the Republican gerrymandering. The GOP paid its lawyers $1.7 million to get the Assembly map through the courts, with Michael Best & Friedrich the lead law firm.
Dems paid $750,000 fighting it from the state Senate (which they controlled until 2002) primarily using the Boardman Firm. The Dem side of the case resulted in on of the last bitter fights between Chuck Chvala and Gary George.
Wasn’t George one of the dems who rolled over and wanted to go with the GOP map?
George wanted to retain two Milwaukee congressional districts, going north and west w/ Barrett’s old #5 and south into Racine with Kleczka’s #4 to make up for Milwaukee population loss. Looking at the map, we know how that went — Paul Ryan is representing Oak Creek and Franklin from all the way down in Janesville, and Senselessbrenner represents the North Shore and ‘Tosa from Menomonee Falls (well, that at least makes more sense than Janesville!) Milwaukee did not fare well.
George blamed Chvala, and claimed Chuck was not representing Milwaukee interests, choosing instead to look out for Tammy Baldwin (reapportionment worked out well for her). He also accused Chvala of keeping him out of the Senate’s legal strategy sessions. George then hired the guy who ended up testifying against him - Mark Sostarich - to argue George’s Milwaukee case. Chvala refused to approve pay for Sostarich. In the end, he was paid after Chvala resigned.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4196/is_20040108/ai_n10938634
Ugly. Judging by what happened to Milwaukee in the process, I see Democrats at cross purposes in March 2001 when the maps were drawn and Republicans making them pay.
Michael, Best and Friedrich isn’t that good.
Carving up ‘Tosa, however, was a bad idea that will probably come back to haunt the GOP on Nov. 7. They took two wards on ‘Tosa’s north border out of SD 5 and gave them to Krug and SD 4 — then had to make up for it by dipping south of West Allis and Oklahoma Ave. to add two Milwaukee wards to complete the 5th District. The rest of ‘Tosa was split down the middle, half going to David Cullen, setting up a potential Scott Walker vs. Cullen showdown for Cullen’s Assembly seat … Was WALKER supposed to bow out of the Assembly and run against Rosenzweig?
Madness!!! Or, how does that go? “Stick it to Milwaukee!”
JDM- That is not what a push poll is. Besides, what makes you think the numbers are not correct?
Never said it was incorrect — in fact, Sullivan may be doing better than that now. I just don’t think those SSDC polls are meant to be scientific - they’re a “how are we doing in general” poll. If the news is good, it’s used to leverage support (not an issues push poll).
You can take the 20 percent many ways: Are they likely voters? Maybe not. Are they Republicans who know about Reynolds but still need to know more before entrusting their vote to Sullivan? Maybe - but Sullivan needs to reach out fast.
They also released, with those Sullivan numbers, polling data from Gard-Kagen that had Kagen up two points. If you look at the primary totals from the 8th Congressional, the Republican base is much bigger. I don’t see how, so quickly after the primary, that Kagen went up two, not if you’re talking likely voters.
Also, same SSDC press release, there was good news from Eau Claire in Pat Kreitlow’s race against Dave Zien, but no poll on the Kathleen VInehout-Ron Brown race in SD 31, which may be the Dems best bet to take a seat. I thought that was strange.
But for Sullivan, the poll said nothing he didn’t already know last May when the scientific poll was done: He’s got the incumbent in trouble, but still has work cut out for him. If Christenson can beat Reynolds in Milwaukee County by 34 votes, Sullivan can beat him by 2,000.
But will that be enough? Reynolds cleared 1600 votes in Elm Grove alone last time. And then there’s all of the town of Brookfield and the two city of Brookfield to contend with.
JDM- You might want to learn how polls work before commenting on them again. I have seen several of your posts relating to polls and you know some of the terminology, but not what they mean nor how polls are used.
Just a little suggestion.
JDM - I know a lot of Republican voters in Tosa, and they are NOT voting for Reynolds.
That great to hear Bill! The 5th is a Republican-leaning district, and Sullivan can do a lot of good by laying groundwork for suburban Republicans in the Milwaukee area to trust Democrats to represent them. Shared priorities on fiscal issues can be developed, and health care reform and education are two key issues on which Sullivan can help by working across the aisle.
John - Watchdog is a free news service. We’re not making $75,000 a year to tell candidates they should blow $10-15,000 on polls, and we do this in our spare time. You’re reacting to (it seems) use of the term “push poll” above, which, I suppose I could edit out and put this to rest, but we encourage Other than that, tell me how my analysis of the 5th Senate District is mistaken.
What I prefer to look at are, not predictive polls, but very real voting results from previous elections, in combination with demographic patterns. By lookin at this, I can say - the Republican base in SD 5 is bigger than the Democratic base; the GOP base in Congressional District 8 is bigger than the Dem base — which makes Kagen’s fight an uphill battle, no matter what the polls say.
Don’t tell me that Badger is a good pollster; or St. Norbert’s, or WPRI. One Wisconsin Now put the usual suspects in polling to shame with their first full scale election poll. The way it’s shaping up, their 48-41 lead for Doyle is looking more and more like the real deal.
The bottom line on polling: There’s too much of it.
An edit to the comment directly above — We encourage “feedback and an open sort of accountability — and, more than anything, we appreciate our readers.”