October
2006
Whimsical Math: Sullivan Beating Reynolds in Yard Sign Race
It may not be scientific, but Wauwatosa Alderman Jim Sullivan seems to have a lead in the yard sign race.
Wauwatosa is awash with Sullivan signs while it seems that State Senator Tom Reynolds seems to have a slight edge in West Allis. The district is made up of three Assembly districts with the Wauwatosa Assembly district consistently netting about half of the votes in the race. The A.D. with West Allis and the A.D. with Milwaukee (combined) make up the other half. The Milwaukee A.D. can be expected to go to the dem (Sullivan) and the West Allis A.D. is traditionally a toss up.
If Sullivan continues to build on the momentum he has developed in Wauwatosa, he will win. If he wins with 53% or more of the vote, he will be a very formidable incumbent in the 2010 race, as incumbents can usually build on their legislative successes and constituent work.
Jim McGuigan
Jim McGuigan, Reynolds Watch, Watchdogging Campaigns
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Very scientific indeed.
I have it on good sources that a) Sullivan is out of money after having hired too much staff and b) Reynolds’ lead is about 7 points.
As someone who gets EVERY piece of lit that flies around here, I’ve only gotten one piece from Sullivan while Reynolds is sending a new piece out every week.
McGuigan - you should know that yard signs mean bumpkis. They are a waste of money. Instead of yard signs, maybe Sullivan should have focused on his absentee ballot push and some mail to hit this coming week.
The race goes to Reynolds - and I don’t even like the guy.
Sue,
My sources tell me the opposite and as you’ve seen here, I’ve nailed the story every time. Sullivan has way more cash on hand than does Reynolds.
I don’t know the reasons behind the fact that you received only one piece of lit from Sullivan but it may be due to some sort of targeting. Regardless, we’re still three weeks out so I would have expected only one piece.
How many Reynolds pieces have you received?
But you’re right — yard signs mean little. (Hence the title of the column.)
I’ve gotten about 4 pieces (one a week) in the last month. This doesn’t include those pieces that trickled in all summer. Even David Cullen is getting lit to me more often… They are all really quite good - despite Dohnal/Blonien writing them.
But again - I usually get the targeted Dem lit, too (it all goes back to 2004 and convincing some 18 year old canvasser coming to the door that I was a Mao’s Little Red Book carrier and subscribed to ACLU monthly…).
I don’t feel like scouring Sullivan’s reports - because I don’t care enough to - but everyone knows how to hide obligations. His campaign may actually be hiding his poor finance numbers; again, I’m hearing from very reliable - and credible - sources (and they’re on your team).
Sorry Sue but I’m not on Team Sullivan. I think he’s the better candidate, but I’m not part of the campaign.
Reynolds seems to be on his way out (finally), but Sullivan has an agenda, and it doesn’t include Tosa.
I was just down by Jim Sullivan’s campaign office picking up a yard sign. I asked one of the campaign workers how the campaign was going. He had indicated to me that their polls show a 40/40 tie. He further told me those undecideds are going to Sullivan 3 to 1 as he picks up name recognition. Sue Moe, where are you getting your information?
I heard there was a WisPolitics poll that showed that same split but I can’t find the link. Anybody?
Monte, I’m not sure where you’re headed with that comment.
There’s no wispolitics poll - they don’t have the resources to blow $14,000 on a poll with any science to it. That’s what Sullivan paid last June.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4196/is_20060607/ai_n16458173
I’d be shocked if Sullivan paid for more polling. If he did more polling, he should have publicized the results but there’s nothing out there — so no poll.
Any polling he’s doing is I’m sure just to give a general idea of how he’s doing. 40-40 with work to do, doing well with the undecideds, isn’t really saying anything he didn’t already know in June.
Three weeks out - time for direct mail.
A good chunk of east ‘Tosa is in Cullen’s district now. The new boundaries pushed Scott Walker out of his old ‘Tosa-based Assembly District, now held by Leah Vukmir. East ‘Tosa goes blue. West of 76th Street - all red, and now Elm Grove (red) is in the SD. The gerrymandering all goes in Reynolds’ favor (as we all know).
It’s tough for Sullivan, even tougher with Doyle and Falk cornering GOTV resources, and I don’t think Doyle or Falk on the ticket is particularly helpful to Sullivan. This is not the kind of demographic race Dems have shown they know how to win in the Milwaukee area — Sullivan’s going to have to do this on his own.
Despite all that, Jim’s got an even chance to have a different fate than John Lehman (Racine) on election day.
Sullivan mail went out a month ago.
http://watchdogmilwaukee.com/blog/jim/2006/tom-reynolds-bogus-5-point-lead/
The internal GOP poll is a push poll like any other, designed to convince money that the candidate is the frontrunner.
Green and Doyle each have “5 point leads.”
From WisPolitics
DEMS HYPE THEIR OWN INTERNAL NUMBERS
Democrats are also touting new poll results today that show their candidates in three targeted districts ahead of or dead even with GOP rivals.
The internal SSDC numbers reflect surveys conducted over the last 10 days among 350 likely voters in each district. Each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The results:
– SD 21: Dem John Lehman 44 percent vs. Republican Bill McReynolds 38 percent
– SD 23: Dem Pat Kreitlow 47 percent vs. GOP Sen. Dave Zien 45 percent
– SD 5: Dem Jim Sullivan 40 percent vs. GOP Sen. Tom Reynolds 40 percent
At first the Dems were surprised by how positive the results were, but found they are consistent with some other recent numbers conducted by outside organizations, an SSDC consultant said.
What outside organizations, I wonder? Who’s got the scratch to do scientific polls at this point? There will be a combined news agency poll coming up … a real poll of Racine would be interesting. Bush beat Kerry in Racine County 52-47 … Feingold won 55-45 there. These are the folks who elected Cathy Stepp in 2002. “Lehman’s in trouble” is what I’ve been hearing.
Racine Journal Times has an online poll of Doyle-Green up now. The guv’s not doing too well, despite the Dem Party forwarding the link to its email list last week.
http://www.journaltimes.com/jt_simple_poll/results.php?poll_name=gov101306&options=Democratic+incumbent+Jim+Doyle%7CRepublican+challenger+Mark+Green%7CGreen+Party+candidate+Nelson+Eisman%7CDonald+Duck%7CNot+one+of+them+deserves+my+vote+-+even+Donald+Duck&title=POLL%3A+Election+2007&question=Your+vote+for+Governor+will+go+to+…&border_color=909090&border_thickness=1&background_color=ffffff&title_bar_color=003399&title_font=Verdana&title_color=ffffff&title_style=bold&title_size=12&question_font=Tahoma&question_color=000000&question_style=bold&question_size=14&other_font=Tahoma&other_color=000000&other_style=normal&other_size=12
KRM - don’t worry where I’m getting my information. As far as a campaign worker telling you about a 3-1 break; that’s hogwash - they have no way of knowing that, not to mention that that would be an historical anomoly if true. This district, as JD-M points out, isn’t buying Sullivan.
At best, the undecideds will break 1-1 for Sullivan. Probably closer to 1.5-1 for Reynolds. Sullivan is a garden-variety liberal that isn’t resonating with Tosa.
Yard signs don’t vote. In the last election that Stanley Zurawski Sr. ran in (and lost) he had, by a huge margin, more yard signs out than Theresa Estness - who ultimately won the elction and won it again in a costly recound demanded by the Stanmeister.
Having said all that, this is going to be a very close election. Personally, I believe Reynolds to be a lightweight - nothing more than a mouthpiece for Bob Dohnal.
Anyone afraid to step-up to a straight-up debate (without his girly excuses about cameras) isn’t fit for office. What an embarrassment to the GOP.
Nuff said.
Sue, what do you base your comment that Sullivan (a twice elected Tosa Alderman) doesn\’t resonate with Tosa?
I don\’t know about how the undecideds are breaking and I haven\’t yet seen any of the Sullivan campaign literature, but from the people I\’ve spoken to who live in the district, they\’re not too keen on Reynolds. But I\’ll say one thing for Reynolds, he\’s got the biggest signs in yards but I would imagine that comes with owning a printing press.
You may have tried to decieve an 18 year old a while back into thinking you\’re a liberal but your trying to ally yourself with Mao doesn\’t make you a liberal — if true, it makes you part of the lunatic fringe. If untrue, it just makes you a liar. Mao\’s cultural revolution was anti-establishment and anti-education. It had nothing to do with liberalism. It was really a social experiment which combined a warped communism with fascism.
As for claiming that Sullivan is a garden variety liberal, what are you basing that on? What issues can you possibly claim he\’s liberal on? He voted against the last Tosa budget because of a high levy. And yes, we got wind of the fact that the Reynolds people were planning to attack him for voting for the budget but after they found out he voted against it, even they decided they would have looked silly putting that info out.
It’s so traditionally Republican, and with the highest voter turnout wards in the county, that it’s tough Senate race for a Dem to win. I didn’t say ‘Tosa wasn’t buying Sullivan, just that ‘Tosa’s a place Dems still have to prove they can win. Sullivan’s done a great job. I think we can safely say it’s a toss-up.