John - Watchdog is a free news service. We’re not making $75,000 a year to tell candidates they should blow $10-15,000 on polls, and we do this in our spare time. You’re reacting to (it seems) use of the term “push poll” above, which, I suppose I could edit out and put this to rest, but we encourage Other than that, tell me how my analysis of the 5th Senate District is mistaken.

What I prefer to look at are, not predictive polls, but very real voting results from previous elections, in combination with demographic patterns. By lookin at this, I can say - the Republican base in SD 5 is bigger than the Democratic base; the GOP base in Congressional District 8 is bigger than the Dem base — which makes Kagen’s fight an uphill battle, no matter what the polls say.

Don’t tell me that Badger is a good pollster; or St. Norbert’s, or WPRI. One Wisconsin Now put the usual suspects in polling to shame with their first full scale election poll. The way it’s shaping up, their 48-41 lead for Doyle is looking more and more like the real deal.

The bottom line on polling: There’s too much of it.

Just a little suggestion.

You can take the 20 percent many ways: Are they likely voters? Maybe not. Are they Republicans who know about Reynolds but still need to know more before entrusting their vote to Sullivan? Maybe - but Sullivan needs to reach out fast.

They also released, with those Sullivan numbers, polling data from Gard-Kagen that had Kagen up two points. If you look at the primary totals from the 8th Congressional, the Republican base is much bigger. I don’t see how, so quickly after the primary, that Kagen went up two, not if you’re talking likely voters.

Also, same SSDC press release, there was good news from Eau Claire in Pat Kreitlow’s race against Dave Zien, but no poll on the Kathleen VInehout-Ron Brown race in SD 31, which may be the Dems best bet to take a seat. I thought that was strange.

But for Sullivan, the poll said nothing he didn’t already know last May when the scientific poll was done: He’s got the incumbent in trouble, but still has work cut out for him. If Christenson can beat Reynolds in Milwaukee County by 34 votes, Sullivan can beat him by 2,000.

But will that be enough? Reynolds cleared 1600 votes in Elm Grove alone last time. And then there’s all of the town of Brookfield and the two city of Brookfield to contend with.

George blamed Chvala, and claimed Chuck was not representing Milwaukee interests, choosing instead to look out for Tammy Baldwin (reapportionment worked out well for her). He also accused Chvala of keeping him out of the Senate’s legal strategy sessions. George then hired the guy who ended up testifying against him - Mark Sostarich - to argue George’s Milwaukee case. Chvala refused to approve pay for Sostarich. In the end, he was paid after Chvala resigned.
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4196/is_20040108/ai_n10938634

Ugly. Judging by what happened to Milwaukee in the process, I see Democrats at cross purposes in March 2001 when the maps were drawn and Republicans making them pay.

Michael, Best and Friedrich isn’t that good.

Carving up ‘Tosa, however, was a bad idea that will probably come back to haunt the GOP on Nov. 7. They took two wards on ‘Tosa’s north border out of SD 5 and gave them to Krug and SD 4 — then had to make up for it by dipping south of West Allis and Oklahoma Ave. to add two Milwaukee wards to complete the 5th District. The rest of ‘Tosa was split down the middle, half going to David Cullen, setting up a potential Scott Walker vs. Cullen showdown for Cullen’s Assembly seat … Was WALKER supposed to bow out of the Assembly and run against Rosenzweig?

Madness!!! Or, how does that go? “Stick it to Milwaukee!”

Dems paid $750,000 fighting it from the state Senate (which they controlled until 2002) primarily using the Boardman Firm. The Dem side of the case resulted in on of the last bitter fights between Chuck Chvala and Gary George.

But in this Governor’s race … Milwaukee area’s tough on Doyle … and I don’t think the R is that much of a stigma in these state races.

Elm Grove tally in the 2002 general: McCallum 2,385 to Doyle’s 763 (Ed Thompson got 89). That’s 74% for Scott McCallum in Elm Grove … 23.5% for Jim Doyle.

One of the normal guests on the Sykes Sunday show, Deb Jordahl (republican blogger) was saying that undecideds break 2 to 1 for the challenger. If Jordahl is right, that means that Sullivan would get about 53.3% of the vote.

Then again, Jordahl is the type of partisan who says that the fiscal mess in the state is Doyle’s fault (Doyle is finishing his first 4 year term) but that the mess in Milwaukee County is not the fault of Scott Walker (Walker is in his 4th year as County Executive.

So I don’t know if we can believe anything she says.

But looking at the wards, you get to 85th street in ‘Tosa and begin walking west toward Brookfield and Democrat voters become few and far between. The Brookfield-Elm Grove vote bears that out, as Christenson made few inroads there. Sullivan, we hope, is faring better.

Yes, I recall that now. It was the subject of one your columns in ThePress, I think? Are we naming names?

Chuck Chvala comes to mind … And Shirly Krug got a nice deal on the northwest side. In fact, nine of the north end wards lopped out of the 5th Senate District (13th Assembly District - David Cullen), including the two Tosa wards, went into the 12th Assembly District of Shirley Krug. Three more north end wards in SD 5 went into the 11th Assembly District (Johnnie-Morris Tatum); three more, including a new ward went east into 6th Senate District.

Motive? Krug, then the Democratic minority leader in the Assembly, did not want her district to become a majority-minority district … so the Assembly reapportionment committee swung her district south into the 5th Senate District.

Defending their seat in the 5th Senate District by taking the district west to Elm Grove and Brookfield — clearly the doing of the Assembly redistricting committee, controlled by Republicans and chaired by Bonnie Ladwig (R-Racine).

Trivia time for the Watchdog faithful:
Can you name the two legislators named above not charged with crimes?
And the only legislator named above still on the job?

The Legislature gets the redistricting job after the Census. What actually happens is that the controlling party (in this case it was the Assembly Republicans) sets up a redistricting committee, hires consultant lawyers, the lawyers draw the lines, the committee rubber stamps the gerrymandered plan and the two parties fight it out. Of course, the Dems did all they could to minimize the damage and after all that the courts are brought in to approve the new map. The courts do not have the resources to bring in new consultants (and few judges would view that as the judicial role in the process), and there are motions and suits being brought throughout, so the final map is very similar to the map that was approved by …

The Republican-controlled Assembly redistricting committee.

The 5th District lost a great senator in 2002. Much of the bipartisanship in the senate left with her.

Peggy was a great legislator, when we had a good legislature. Tosa\’s loss was the UW\’s gain, so we are glad that she still is in public service at all.

But we never will forgive the neocons of the party for the redistricting that cost her the election. It was not the Dem ticket with Barrett — it was the same neocons who went after all the moderates in their own party.

You hit the nail on the head. Your houseboy Reynolds is indeed the Village Idiot.

Earlier this year I ran into him at Metcalf\’s Sentry (in the village of Tosa).

He could not tell me if I lived within the boundaries of the 5th District (I do). This guy is pathetic and has a larger shoe size than IQ.

Must be tough trying to get through life with shit for brains, eh?

Reynolds is lucky he has you to tell him what to think.

You’re absolutely correct, your houseboy Reynolds is the Village Idiot.

Seems that when I ran into him at the State Street Sentrya month or so ago he couldn’t tell me if I was, or was not living in the 5th District. He had no clue as to where the boundries were.

What a clueless moron. It’s gotta be tough work getting through life when you have shit for brains.